Predictions Have Consequences

“I decide my life when I do not understand.  I understand my life in living those decisions.”  Alan Fox, Age 18

Success and failure in our lives is largely determined by the quality of our predictions, and each of us makes many predictions every single day, especially for the New Year which is approaching.

Most of those predictions are about relatively minor issues with short term implications such as what to eat for lunch or which movie to see.  There’s not too much upside, or downside, either way.

But there are many important predictions we make that will significantly impact the quality of our lives for the long term. For example, whether to stay at or leave your present job, or, if you decide to make a change, which new job to accept.  Other big issues are who (or whether) to marry, how to plan for your retirement (or not), or whether to have children.  In these areas your decisions will have a major impact for many years.

So how can you make good predictions? How can any of us predict the success or failure of our decisions when there is so much that can happen to influence the outcome that is beyond our control?

My suggestion is to pay attention to the information that you can or should know when making important predictions. Consider all of the known possibilities. What consequences are likely to result from your decision? What is a foreseeable outcome? If you choose to ignore a likely result or a known risk you have only yourself to blame for making a poor prediction and, consequently, a decision which turns out badly.

When I was young, despite pleas from my mother, I made a decision to not brush my teeth regularly.  I predicted that I was unlikely to ever experience tooth decay. Also, despite advice from my dentist, I decided not to floss, again a bad prediction. Although I subsequently changed my practices and began to brush regularly and also to use a water pik, the consequences of my earlier predictions had already taken effect. I recently needed to have three teeth removed because of bone decay. Actions, or inactions, have consequences.

If you ignore available information you will more likely make a bad prediction. If you know that the man you are dating cheated on his last three partners then should you make a prediction that he will remain loyal to you? If you are quitting your job to take new employment with a company that has an extremely high turnover rate should you expect a secure future at that company? If you are investing with a money manager who has never delivered good returns should you trust him with your retirement?

I also suggest that you pay attention to patterns. I used to bet on sporting events.  Years ago I was in Las Vegas during the Super Bowl and I placed a substantial bet on my favorite team.  I was extremely happy until the fourth quarter, when the opposing team rallied from behind to win.  I then realized that my entire record of betting on sporting events was dismal.  I still believe that I can correctly predict the outcome of every game, but my experience has been the opposite.  For this reason I haven’t bet on a sporting event for years.

Your past is often your best guide to your future.  If you have an area in your life where your predictions are seldom or never accurate, seek the advice of someone you trust. I know a young woman who now asks her friends to vet a prospective partner before she gets serious because she has a track record of making choices which she later regrets.

If you gather available information and pay attention to your own patterns you will be more successful at making good predictions, and that is one of the secrets to living a better life.

Alan